Large-scale calibration and simulation of COVID-19 epidemiologic scenarios to support healthcare planning.

The COVID-19 pandemic has provided stiff challenges for planning and resourcing in health services in the UK and worldwide. Epidemiological models can provide simulations of how infectious disease might progress in a population given certain parameters. We adapted an agent-based model of COVID-19 to inform planning and decision-making within a healthcare setting, and created a software framework that automates processes for calibrating the model parameters to health data and allows the model to be run at national population scale on National Health Service (NHS) infrastructure. We developed a method for calibrating the model to three daily data streams (hospital admissions, intensive care occupancy, and deaths), and demonstrate that on cross-validation the model fits acceptably to unseen data streams including official estimates of COVID-19 incidence. Once calibrated, we use the model to simulate future scenarios of the spread of COVID-19 in England and show that the simulations provide useful projections of future COVID-19 clinical demand. These simulations were used to support operational planning in the NHS in England, and we present the example of the use of these simulations in projecting future clinical demand during the rollout of the national COVID-19 vaccination programme. Being able to investigate uncertainty and test sensitivities was particularly important to the operational planning team. This epidemiological model operates within an ecosystem of data technologies, drawing on a range of NHS, government and academic data sources, and provides results to strategists, planners and downstream data systems. We discuss the data resources that enabled this work and the data challenges that were faced.

The effect of COVID-19 on the pressure injury reporting gap.

Responsibilities placed on nurses increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hospital-acquired PI monitoring was deferred in favor of more critical patient needs. It was hypothesized that a counterintuitive dip in HAPI reporting would be observed despite maximum hospital capacity across much of the United States. The electronic medical records of patients treated in the YNHH System between December 2017 and February 2021 were retrospectively reviewed to identify patients with HAPIs, defined as PIs not documented upon admission but subsequently present during the patient's hospital stay. Paired t test revealed a significantly lower number of reported incidents mid-pandemic than during the prepandemic baseline months (P <.0001). The data in this report show interdisciplinary clinician-led teams must continue to monitor for HAPIs and congruous conditions to minimize reporting gaps and progression in PI severity despite COVID-19 pandemic-related conditions and additional related responsibilities.

Engineering a Therapeutic Protein to Enhance the Study of Anti-Drug Immunity.

The development of anti-drug antibodies represents a significant barrier to the utilization of protein-based therapies for a wide variety of diseases. While the rate of antibody formation can vary depending on the therapeutic employed and the target patient population receiving the drug, the antigen-specific immune response underlying the development of anti-drug antibodies often remains difficult to define. This is especially true for patients with hemophilia A who, following exposure, develop antibodies against the coagulation factor, factor VIII (FVIII). Models capable of studying this response in an antigen-specific manner have been lacking. To overcome this challenge, we engineered FVIII to contain a peptide (323-339) from the model antigen ovalbumin (OVA), a very common tool used to study antigen-specific immunity. FVIII with an OVA peptide (FVIII-OVA) retained clotting activity and possessed the ability to activate CD4 T cells specific to OVA323-339 in vitro. When compared to FVIII alone, FVIII-OVA also exhibited a similar level of immunogenicity, suggesting that the presence of OVA323-339 does not substantially alter the anti-FVIII immune response. Intriguingly, while little CD4 T cell response could be observed following exposure to FVIII-OVA alone, inclusion of anti-FVIII antibodies, recently shown to favorably modulate anti-FVIII immune responses, significantly enhanced CD4 T cell activation following FVIII-OVA exposure. These results demonstrate that model antigens can be incorporated into a therapeutic protein to study antigen-specific responses and more specifically that the CD4 T cell response to FVIII-OVA can be augmented by pre-existing anti-FVIII antibodies.

Fulminant myocarditis and systemic hyperinflammation temporally associated with BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in two patients.

Immune-mediated myocardial injury following Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirys-2 (SARS-CoV2) infection has been described in adults and children. Cases of myocarditis following immunization for SARS-CoV2 have recently been documented, mostly associated with mild severity and spontaneous recovery. We herein report two cases of fulminant myocarditis following BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccination associated with systemic hyperinflammatory syndrome and refractory shock requiring support with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.